Chris Poole
Chris Poole

They said it couldn’t be done, but they were wrong. In just 40 or so days, faster than anyone could imagine, equity-fund-owned Chrysler LLC and crippled giant General Motors Corporation came through historic “surgical” bankruptcies to become Chrysler Group LLC, linked with Italy’s Fiat Auto, and the equally clean, shiny and much smaller new General Motors Company.

Both go forward as radically restructured “private” enterprises that are paradoxically owned mostly by taxpayers and tax-paying union health-care trusts. But maybe not for much longer. Both automakers can’t wait to get out from under the derisive “Government Motors” label. GM is already talking about an IPO by late 2010, and Chrysler is sure to float a stock issue as soon as it can. And why not? Issuing shares is a respected, time-honored way for businesses to raise needed capital, and these two need funds for the near future in the worst way, mainly because the vehicle market is still basically in the tank, and Washington and Ottawa have nixed any further support. In other words, guys, it’s sink-or-swim time--and please do pay back all that public money we’ve given you.

But though hope abounds--and at the risk of sounding pessimistic--I think it’s way too early to sound the “all clear” for this duo. In fact, it’s going to take a few years before we really know the outcome of this summer’s bankruptcy saga and its Cash for Clunkers epilogue. Why? I can think of three reasons.