The 2011 Cadillac BTS may be styled similarly to its big brother, the CTS. The 2008 CTS is shown here.

Consumer Guide’s Impressions of the 2011 Cadillac BTS

Another “baby Cadillac” is on the way and it couldn’t be better timed. General Motors isn’t talking specifics yet, but this rear-drive sedan could be a serious alternative to premium import-brand compacts.

What We Know About the 2011 Cadillac BTS

It’s either dumb luck or amazing prescience, but General Motors’ flagship division is planning a compact car below the midsize Cadillac CTS. The new rear-wheel-drive sedan, which is being rumored for the BTS badge and perhaps additional body styles, looks like a very smart move in light of soaring fuel prices and tough new fuel economy mandates. It also reflects GM’s desire to compete directly with premium import-brand compacts like the BMW 3-Series, Lexus IS, and Mercedes-Benz C-Class. Though GM isn’t talking yet about a release date or other specifics, sources believe the new “baby Cadillac” won’t be ready until model-year 2011 at the earliest.

The 2011 Cadillac BTS will be built on GM’s new Alpha global small-car platform. Alpha came to light last fall after GM and the United Auto Workers union released the broad outlines of their latest contract. GM is also said to be considering a related compact Buick, which we forecast as the 2012 Buick Bolero. These and possibly other Alpha models will be built at GM’s plant in Lordstown, Ohio, one of several “job guarantee” provisions in the new labor agreement.

With premium small cars a European-market mainstay, GM has sensibly assigned its Opel branch in Germany to develop the Alpha architecture. Though platform size, chassis components, and other “hard points” are probably not yet fixed in stone, the Alpha project seems to be gunning for the import-brand rear-drivers mentioned above, as well as upscale compacts with front- and/or all-wheel drive like the Acura TSX and Audi A3/A4. Our hunch is that the 2011 Cadillac BTS will be sized between BMW’s 1- and 3-Series, which is reflected in our educated-guess specifications.

Though it could appear with a purpose-designed powertrain, the 2011 Cadillac BTS is more likely to use GM’s 2.0-liter “Ecotec” four-cylinder with direct fuel injection and a new low-pressure turbocharging system that trades some potential performance for better real-world fuel efficiency. This explains our estimated 230 horsepower versus 260 for the same basic engine in the Pontiac Solstice/Saturn Sky roadster and the new SS versions of Chevy’s compact Cobalt coupe and HHR wagon. Most Cadillac buyers prefer an automatic transmission, so we’re positing a six-speed unit to match import-brand rivals. But don’t rule out a six-speed manual as either standard or a no-charge option. A manny-tranny is already available in the CTS, and would be quite in character here, as the BTS is almost sure to follow its bigger brother in being designed and promoted as a world-beating “driver’s car.”

That likely mission allows safe assumptions about other features of the 2011 Cadillac BTS. Four-wheel independent suspension and all-round ABS disc brakes are obligatory in this class. Ditto a standard antiskid/traction-control system (GM’s “Stabilitrak” in this case), a full complement of airbags, and options like a voice-activated navigation system, radar-based cruise control, obstacle detection, perhaps a lane-departure or lane-guidance system, and maybe a “sport package” upgrade with firmer suspension and larger wheels and tires.

The 2011 Cadillac BTS may also offer body-style options, again with one eye on the competition. GM has hinted that the Alpha program envisions a four-door sedan and at least one other body style. That could be a coupe, though we think a sporty wagon more likely. Then again, GM is prepping both as near-term additions to the CTS line, so the BTS could end up with three body choices, too.

Whatever finally materializes, the 2011 Cadillac BTS looks to be a serious premium-small-car effort, nothing remotely like the cynical, hastily conceived Cadillac Cimarron of the 1980s. And the BTS is nothing if not relevant in these troubled times for consumers and automakers alike. Will it be a hit? Obviously, no one can say at this point. But if it’s as executed as well as the latest CTS, we’d say this smaller, thriftier, more affordable new Cadillac has a pretty good chance.

A Notable Feature of the 2011 Cadillac BTS

Cadillac hopes you’ve forgotten all about its previous compact car. The 1982-88 Cimarron sedan was just a gussied-up version of the original front-wheel-drive Chevrolet Cavalier, a too-obvious last-minute addition to GM’s J-car subcompact family. As such, it did nothing for Cadillac’s reputation, which was then suffering from a variety of other ills, including unreliable “V-8-6-4” and diesel V8 engines. More recently, GM hatched the BLS for Europe as part of a years-long effort to make the Cadillac brand more globally competitive. This hasn’t worked either, mainly because the BLS is basically a Saab 9-3 sedan or wagon with Cadillac styling and little else to recommend it. As a result, the BLS has been a very slow seller, partly because the 9-3 is considered outmoded and partly because many buyers don’t like Cadillac’s current visuals. We suspect--and hope--that GM has learned lessons from both these experiences and won’t repeat them with the 2011 Cadillac BTS.

Buying Advice for the 2011 Cadillac BTS

Like big-brother CTS, the 2011 Cadillac BTS will have to convince habitual import-brand buyers to go domestic for a change. That’s a tall order, given formidable class competition that’s likely to be even more so by the time the BTS arrives. Of particular note are the redesigned Audi A3 and A4 models that are due in the U.S. by fall 2009. On the other hand, the latest CTS seems to be winning converts and that bodes well for BTS, provided it can deliver in the same good ways. Still, this is a hard-fought market class, so you should definitely consider alternatives.

2011 Cadillac BTS Release Date: GM isn’t talking, as noted, perhaps because the Alpha program is still at a fairly early stage. But assuming no unexpected development delays, sales might begin in the second or third quarter of 2010. We’ll likely get a better handle on timing with the inevitable lightly disguised “concept” preview at a major auto show.

2011 Cadillac BTS First Test Drive: If the above proves out, media previews might be held very late in calendar 2009 or early in 2010.

2011 Cadillac BTS Prices: By definition, the compact BTS will undercut Cadillac’s midsize CTS. The only question is, by how much? That’s tough to figure now that inflation looks to be creeping up again, not to mention the rising raw-materials costs that all automakers are still grappling with. With CTS prices likely to inch up in the next two years and the BTS presumably filling the gap, we’d guess a base-sticker range of $32,500-$35,000, though it could be lower depending on final standard content.

For more inside information on hundreds of new cars of today and tomorrow, check out:

• C­onsumer Guide New Car Reviews and Prices: Road test results, photos, specifications, and prices for hundreds of new cars, trucks, minivans, and SUVs from the Auto Editors of Consumer Guide.
• Cadillac: Read Consumer Guide's full reports, including ratings, prices, specifications, and fuel economy.
• Premium Compact Cars: The 2011 Cadillac BTS will compete in the premium compact car class. Here's Consumer Guide's roundup of all the premium compact cars on sale today.
• 2008 Consumer Guide Best Buy and Recommended Award Winners:
  Check out which cars won our Best Buy and Recommended awards for 2008.
• Future Cars: Step into the automotive showroom of tomorrow with reviews, analysis, pictures, prices, and preliminary specifications on scores of vehicles that will be appearing next year and beyond.