The 2012 Buick Bolero will be based on the company's Chinese-market Excelle, pictured here.

Tough new fuel economy mandates have General Motors rethinking future plans. That’s why the rumor mill expects a new compact Buick based on a hot seller in China.

What We Know About the 2012 Buick Bolero

General Motors now sells more Buicks in China than it does in the U.S. The company has thus decided that future Buicks will be developed with an eye to both markets. The lineups won’t be identical, of course, but there will be increased sharing of design and engineering ideas across the vast Pacific. It’s part of GM’s new global product strategy that aims to slash costs and increase manufacturing flexibility.

Buick’s top seller in China is the Excelle, a front-wheel-drive four-door compact sedan based on a design from the GM Daewoo operation in South Korea. With the Chinese economy booming and buyers demanding more upscale wheels, the Excelle is being redesigned as a “more premium” model on GM’s new rear-wheel-drive Alpha platform. It’s expected to debut either late this year or early in 2009.

Alpha came to light last fall as part of GM’s latest contract with the United Auto Workers, when the company confirmed at least one Alpha model for the U.S., a baby Cadillac. (“ATS,” anyone?) But that was before Congress passed tough new fleet-average fuel-economy standards that begin with model-year 2011 and rise to a 35-mpg mandate by 2020. To help cope with this reality, GM is said to be thinking seriously about a U.S.-built Excelle tailored to the American market. Because the Excelle name will surely be changed--too close to the nasty old Hyundai Excel--we’re calling this model the 2012 Buick Bolero, after an attractive small Buick concept from some years ago.

Premium small cars are a European-market mainstay, so it’s no surprise that GM’s Opel branch in Germany has been assigned to develop the Alpha architecture. Though platform size, chassis components, and other “hard points” are a mystery right now, the Alpha cars would seem to be gunning for the rear-drive BMW 1-Series, Lexus IS, and Mercedes-Benz C-Class, as well as upscale compacts with front- and/or all-wheel drive like the Acura TSX and Audi A3/A4. That assumption is reflected in our educated-guess specifications.

So, too, in our projected powertrain. Though GM could have other ideas, we think the 2012 Buick Bolero will use the corporate 2.0-liter “Ecotec” four-cylinder with direct fuel injection and a new low-pressure turbocharging system that trades some max performance potential for better real-world fuel efficiency. This explains our estimated 230 horsepower versus 260 for the same engine in the Pontiac Solstice/Saturn Sky roadster and the new SS versions of Chevy’s Cobalt coupe and sedan and HHR compact wagon. Buick buyers would expect an automatic transmission, so we’re positing a standard six-speed, if only to match import-brand rivals.

Given the strong sales start for the new Enclave crossover SUV, the 2012 Buick Bolero should follow its lead in appointments and equipment, with a healthy helping of standard features, relatively few options, and classier cabin décor than the GM small-car norm. How posh might it be? That depends on where Bolero ultimately fits price wise versus the baby Cadillac and import-brand competitors.

It’s encouraging to see GM “think small” about premium-brand cars, and with a seriousness that was absent in past efforts like the Buick Skylark. It’s also heartening that GM North America is bringing in more good ideas from its overseas branches. Of course, most Americans won’t know or care that their U.S.-built 2012 Buick Bolero has a cousin in China, and that’s probably as it should be.

A Notable Feature of the 2012 Buick Bolero

We understand that GM plans to offer at least two body styles on the Alpha platform. There’s no question that one is a four-door sedan, but it’s unclear what the other will be. A coupe would make sense, but a stylish wagon, perhaps with a few SUV visuals and marketed as a crossover, would doubtless sell a lot better. So, the wagon gets our nod. Besides, GM needs entries in the burgeoning premium compact crossover field already populated by the Acura RDX, BMW X3, and Infiniti EX.

Buying Advice for the 2012 Buick Bolero

Buick first offered compact cars way back in 1961, but they’ve never been a big part of Buick’s business. Even so, GM planners seem to think the time is right to try again, and not just because of the coming fuel economy standards. A 2012 Buick Bolero could be another sales and image booster for the long-troubled brand, much like the Enclave. But it will have to have exactly the “right” styling, performance, features, and price just to a get look from buyers partial to upscale import brands, and that won’t be easy. Bolero’s baby-Cadillac sister faces the same challenge. Still, given GM’s recent track record, we expect the Alpha cars to be at least class-competitive in most respects, and maybe the new class leaders for value.

2012 Buick Bolero Release Date: The new Alpha-based small Cadillac is generally expected as a 2011 model, so it might go on sale by mid-2010. Assuming that proves out, the Bolero would likely follow six to eight months later in the first or second quarter of 2011.

2012 Buick Bolero First Test Drive: New-model previews typically occur two or three months before the on-sale date, so if the above timing is correct, the Bolero press launch would likely be in fall or early winter of 2010.

2012 Buick Bolero Prices: Pricing forecasts are always tricky with distant debuts, and this one’s no exception. Nevertheless, we fearlessly predict the Bolero will start at around $26,500. That would be $2100 below a base-model 2008 BMW 1-Series coupe and some $4000 less than a base 2008 Lexus IS250. But take this with a big grain of salt, OK?

For more inside information on hundreds of new cars of today and tomorrow, check out:

• C­onsumer Guide New Car Reviews and Prices: Road test results, photos, specifications, and prices for hundreds of new cars, trucks, minivans, and SUVs from the Auto Editors of Consumer Guide.
• Buick: Read Consumer Guide's full reports, including ratings, prices, specifications, and fuel economy.
• Premium Compact Cars: The 2012 Buick Bolero will compete in the premium compact car class. Here's Consumer Guide's roundup of all the premium compact cars on sale today.
• 2008 Consumer Guide Best Buy and Recommended Award Winners:
  Check out which cars won our Best Buy and Recommended awards for 2008.
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